EXPRESSO: Pa=EDs

From: Subject: =?Windows-1252?Q?EXPRESSO:_Pa=EDs_-_Artigo?= Date: Sat, 18 Jan 2003 00:59:00 -0000 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_037B_01C2BE8C.C942EAE0"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_037B_01C2BE8C.C942EAE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://segundasedicoes.expresso.pt/pais/artigos/interior.asp?edicao=1563&id_artigo=ES73148 EXPRESSO: Pa=EDs - Artigo

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1=AA&= nbsp;P=C1GINA

REVIST= A

OPINI=C3= O

PA=CDS

ECONO= MIA

= INTERNACIONAL

DESPO= RTO

VIDAS

CARTAZ<= /A>

PESQU= ISA

F=D3RUNS

PUBLICA=C7=D5ES

GUIAS

DOSSIERS

=CDNDIC= E

EDI=C7= =D5ES

CO= MENT=C1RIOS

=20

12/10/2002

OPINI=C3O As = limita=E7=F5es da=20 estat=EDstica

N=C3O se pode actuar sobre a realidade sem a = conhecer. =C9=20 por isso altamente positivo que o Minist=E9rio da = Educa=E7=E3o tenha=20 tornado p=FAblicos os resultados das escolas secund=E1rias. = No entanto,=20 todos sabemos que o simples resultado m=E9dio de exames numa = escola=20 n=E3o faz justi=E7a cabal ao esfor=E7o dos seus alunos e = professores. Por=20 isso, a leitura dos dados precisa de ser feita com = intelig=EAncia.=20 Ningu=E9m est=E1 mais bem preparado para o fazer do que os = pais, alunos=20 e membros das comunidades locais que melhor conhecem as = escolas da=20 sua =E1rea.

Um estudo independente de uma equipa da = Universidade=20 Nova de Lisboa transformou os dados deste ano numa = seria=E7=E3o=20 (=ABranking=BB), que se reclama =ABlargamente = prefer=EDvel=BB aos dados em=20 bruto. No entanto, esta seria=E7=E3o tem grandes = limita=E7=F5es e=20 pressupostos altamente critic=E1veis.

O estudo parte do princ=EDpio que os maus = resultados=20 podem ser parcialmente atribu=EDdos a condi=E7=F5es = socioecon=F3micas=20 desfavor=E1veis e os bons a condi=E7=F5es mais prop=EDcias. = Penaliza ent=E3o=20 os bons resultados de algumas escolas e desconta os maus de = outras.=20 Trata-se de uma engenharia social paternalista, que deve = ofender=20 todos. E trata-se de uma engenharia social tosca, pois = apenas=20 puderam ser consideradas m=E9dias de concelho, quando = existem enormes=20 disparidades dentro de muitas dessas divis=F5es = administrativas.

Particularmente ofendidos devem estar os=20 estabelecimentos de ensino privado, pois a mesma t=E9cnica = de=20 engenharia social introduziu uma penaliza=E7=E3o dos = resultados das=20 escolas privadas, apenas por terem esse estatuto.

Essencialmente, o estudo da equipa da = Universidade=20 Nova limitou-se a considerar uma s=E9rie de vari=E1veis = m=E9dias=20 concelhias (poder de compra, anos de escolaridade, = escolaridade no=20 12=BA ano), somar-lhe a vari=E1vel =ABescola privada=BB e = considerar=20 interac=E7=F5es poss=EDveis (produtos dois a dois). Utilizou = depois uma=20 t=E9cnica estat=EDstica de regress=E3o linear com escolha = autom=E1tica de=20 vari=E1veis e chegou a diversos modelos explicativos das = notas por=20 disciplina e m=E9dias de disciplinas.

Estes baixos poderes explicativos foram, = ainda por=20 cima, obtidos depois da discut=EDvel exclus=E3o dos casos = que mais se=20 afastavam dos valores esperados pelo modelo = (=ABoutliers=BB).

Estes simples factos questionam a qualidade = da=20 seria=E7=E3o, pois esta foi obtida com base nos desvios das = notas=20 (res=EDduos de regress=E3o) ao que seria ditado pelos = modelos. Ind=EDcio=20 ainda mais negativo =E9 dado pelos modelos finais = escolhidos, que=20 divergem grandemente conforme a disciplina. Pode confiar-se = em=20 modelos que penalizam as notas de Matem=E1tica quando estas = s=E3o=20 obtidas por escolas privadas, mas excluem esse car=E1cter do = estabelecimento quando tratam as notas de Hist=F3ria? N=E3o = significar=E1=20 essa diverg=EAncia entre os modelos escolhidos que o estudo = encontrou=20 correla=E7=F5es esp=FArias?

Nuno Crato, = professor=20 de Matem=E1tica e Estat=EDstica no ISEG (Lisboa)

ARTIGOS=20 RELACIONADOS

As = limita=E7=F5es da=20 estat=EDstica=20

=ABRanking=BB no corrector

O que fazer com estes resultados?

COMENT=C1RIOS (2)

	ANTERIOR	TOPO
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LINE-HEIGHT: 6pt } .espacolinhas8 { LINE-HEIGHT: 8px } .espacolinhas10 { LINE-HEIGHT: 10px } .espacolinhas14 { LINE-HEIGHT: 14px } .legenda { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 70%; LINE-HEIGHT: 120%; FONT-FAMILY: = Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif } .link { TEXT-DECORATION: none } .link:hover { TEXT-DECORATION: underline } .link-k { COLOR: #000000; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .link-k:hover { COLOR: #000000; TEXT-DECORATION: underline } .link-k-visited { COLOR: #000000; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .link-k-visited:hover { COLOR: #000000; TEXT-DECORATION: underline } .link-k-visited:visited { COLOR: #999999 } .link-w { COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .link-w:hover { COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-DECORATION: underline } .link-r { COLOR: #000000; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .link-r:hover { COLOR: #000000; TEXT-DECORATION: underline } .par- { MARGIN-TOP: 0pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 8pt } .par-0 { MARGIN-TOP: 0pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt } .par-assifim { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 75%; FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, = sans-serif; TEXT-ALIGN: right } .par-subtitle { FONT-SIZE: 110%; PADDING-TOP: 6pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, = Helvetica, Sans-serif; LETTER-SPACING: -1px } .par-subsubtitle { FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 6pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, = Helvetica, Sans-serif } .texto-cita { FONT-SIZE: 14px; FONT-STYLE: italic; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", = Times, serif } .texto-cita-interior { FONT-SIZE: 15px; FONT-STYLE: italic; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", = Times, serif } .bar-caixa-r { FONT-SIZE: 11px; COLOR: #ffffff; LINE-HEIGHT: 18px; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial = Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #336699 } .titulo-caixa-gr { FONT-SIZE: 100%; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; COLOR: #ffffff; = LINE-HEIGHT: 120%; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, Helvetica, = Sans-serif; LETTER-SPACING: -1px } .titulo-caixa-med { FONT-SIZE: 90%; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; COLOR: #ffffff; LINE-HEIGHT: = 120%; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif; = LETTER-SPACING: -1px } .texto-caixa-big { FONT-SIZE: 400%; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, Helvetica, = Sans-serif } .texto-caixa-gr { FONT-SIZE: 300%; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, Helvetica, = Sans-serif } .bar-art-rel { FONT-SIZE: 11px; COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, = Helvetica, Sans-serif; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #003366 } .copyright { FONT-SIZE: 8px; LINE-HEIGHT: 10px; FONT-FAMILY: verdana, Arial, = Helvetica, sans-serif } .edicao-data { FONT-SIZE: 11px; LINE-HEIGHT: 10px; FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, = sans-serif } .txt-dec-none-w { COLOR: white; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .tit-revista-gr { FONT-SIZE: 250%; COLOR: #cc6600; LINE-HEIGHT: 85%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times = New Roman", Times, serif } .tit-revista { FONT-SIZE: 190%; COLOR: #cc6600; LINE-HEIGHT: 90%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times = New Roman", Times, serif } .tit-revista-preto { FONT-SIZE: 190%; LINE-HEIGHT: 90%; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", = Times, serif } .tit-antevisao { FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, = Helvetica, Sans-serif } .tit-momentos { FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, = Helvetica, Sans-serif } .tit-qualvida { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 140%; LINE-HEIGHT: 100%; FONT-FAMILY: = "Times New Roman", Times, serif } .tit-tendencias { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 140%; LINE-HEIGHT: 100%; FONT-FAMILY: = "Times New Roman", Times, serif } .tit-rev-opi { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 105%; LINE-HEIGHT: 100%; FONT-FAMILY: = "Times New Roman", Times, serif } .tit-semana { FONT-SIZE: 11px; VERTICAL-ALIGN: middle; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; = FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif; = LETTER-SPACING: -1px } .txt-antevisao { FONT-SIZE: 16px; LINE-HEIGHT: 11px; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", = Times, serif } .antetit-primeira-momentos { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; = LINE-HEIGHT: 10px; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", Times, serif } .antetit-art-momentos { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 13px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; = LINE-HEIGHT: 13px; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", Times, serif } .antetit-revista { FONT-SIZE: 75%; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; COLOR: #933d00; LINE-HEIGHT: = 140%; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif } .antetitgr-revista { FONT-SIZE: 90%; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; COLOR: #933d00; LINE-HEIGHT: = 140%; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif } .postitulo-revista { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 110%; COLOR: #999999; LINE-HEIGHT: 140%; = FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", Times, serif } .assi-rev-opiniao { FONT-SIZE: 16px; LINE-HEIGHT: 11px; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", = Times, serif } .assi-revista { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 60%; LINE-HEIGHT: 11px; FONT-FAMILY: = verdana, Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif } .barra-semana { FONT-SIZE: 15px; COLOR: #ffffff; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial = Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif; LETTER-SPACING: -1px; = BACKGROUND-COLOR: #003366 } .destaque-opiniao-rev { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 11px; COLOR: #cc6600; LINE-HEIGHT: 13px; = FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif } .dias-antevisao { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10px; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", = Times, serif } .dias-antevisao-primeira-letra { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 16px; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", = Times, serif } .entrada-revista { FONT-SIZE: 14px; LINE-HEIGHT: 15px; FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, = Sans-serif } .legenda-revista { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 9px; COLOR: #cc6600; LINE-HEIGHT: 10px; = FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif } .link-rev { COLOR: #cc6600; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .link-rev:hover { COLOR: #cc6600; TEXT-DECORATION: underline } .numero-antevisao { FONT-SIZE: 50px; COLOR: #cc6600; LINE-HEIGHT: 40px; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial = Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif; LETTER-SPACING: -3px } .pratos-ementa { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 12px; COLOR: #999999; LINE-HEIGHT: 12px; = FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", Times, serif } .semana-antevisao { FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #ffffff; LINE-HEIGHT: 11px; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial = Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc6600 } .bar-opiniao { FONT-SIZE: 11px; COLOR: #ffffff; LINE-HEIGHT: 11px; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial = Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #336699 } .antetit-opiniao { FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, = Helvetica, Sans-serif } .tit-opiniao { FONT-SIZE: 18px; COLOR: #666633; LINE-HEIGHT: 18px; FONT-STYLE: italic; = FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman", Times, serif } .destaque-opiniao { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 12px; COLOR: #003366; LINE-HEIGHT: 14px; = FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif } .orelha-opiniao { FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #ffffff; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, = Helvetica, Sans-serif; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #003366 } .assi-opiniao { FONT-SIZE: 11px; LINE-HEIGHT: 9px; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, = Helvetica, Sans-serif; LETTER-SPACING: -1px } 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Sans-serif; LETTER-SPACING: -1px } .barra-vidas { FONT-SIZE: 15px; COLOR: #ffffff; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial = Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif; LETTER-SPACING: -1px; = BACKGROUND-COLOR: #990066 } .barra-vidas-assinatura { FONT-SIZE: 11px; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 16px; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial = Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif; LETTER-SPACING: -1px; = BACKGROUND-COLOR: #eaeaea } .barra-vidas-opiniao { FONT-SIZE: 15px; COLOR: #ffffff; LINE-HEIGHT: 17px; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial = Black", Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif; LETTER-SPACING: -1px; = BACKGROUND-COLOR: #666666 } .entrada-vidas { FONT-SIZE: 15px; LINE-HEIGHT: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, = sans-serif } .orel-vidas { FONT-SIZE: 12px; COLOR: #006699; LINE-HEIGHT: 10px; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial = Black", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif } .tit-breves-vidas { FONT-SIZE: 11px; LINE-HEIGHT: 13px; FONT-FAMILY: "Arial Black", Arial, = Helvetica, sans-serif; LETTER-SPACING: -1px } .tit-gente-vidas { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; 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