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OPTIMAL STOPPING AND POWER OPTIONS

Albert Shiryaev
(joint work with Alexander A. Novikov)

Abstract

We consider a class of the following optimal stopping problems:

To find the value functions

displaymath34

and optimal stopping times for functions tex2html_wrap_inline42 , tex2html_wrap_inline44 , where tex2html_wrap_inline46 , the sequence tex2html_wrap_inline48 is i.i.d. one with tex2html_wrap_inline50 .

The main result: if tex2html_wrap_inline52 , then the stopping time

displaymath35

is optimal, tex2html_wrap_inline54 is the maximal root of the equation tex2html_wrap_inline56 , where tex2html_wrap_inline58 is Appell's polynomial defined from decomposition

displaymath36

with tex2html_wrap_inline60 tex2html_wrap_inline62 tex2html_wrap_inline64 .

For case n=1 the corresponding result with tex2html_wrap_inline68 was obtained by D.A.Darling, T.Liggett, H.M.Taylor ("Optimal stopping for partial sums", Ann. Math. Statist. 43 (1972), 1363-1368). We give a new proof which works for any tex2html_wrap_inline44 , also for gain functions g(x) of type tex2html_wrap_inline74 , tex2html_wrap_inline76 . For case n=1 tex2html_wrap_inline80 what explains the answer tex2html_wrap_inline68 for this case. For tex2html_wrap_inline84

        align23

where tex2html_wrap_inline86 are semiinvariants of the random variable tex2html_wrap_inline88 . Generally,

displaymath37

if tex2html_wrap_inline90 and tex2html_wrap_inline92 .



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